The swamp has had no shortage of hyperbole about President Trump, that a compliant media has been all too happy to spread. The weight of that hyperbole has further dragged down Congress’ popularity to record lows, making Democrats crow that taking back the House of Representatives is a foregone conclusion. According to a Marist Poll, the Democrats may have peaked as they are now trending downward with their generic ballot rating, an indicator frequently used to gauge which party will win control. 
 
“An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that when voters were asked which party’s candidate they’d more likely vote for in their district, 46 percent of registered voters said Democrats, while 40 percent went with Republicans. Nine percent are undecided. That shows a sizable decline from December polling, which found Democrats leading by 13 points on generic ballot polling. Thursday’s poll found more welcome news for Republicans among registered voters who identify as Independents. Among those voters, Republicans led by 2 points, with 38 percent of those voters saying they’d vote for the GOP candidate, while 36 percent said the Democratic candidate. In December, polling found that Democrats were leading among Independent voters by 11 points.”
 
With Democrats shrinking to single-digit leads, and a history of Democrats winning fewer seats than this metric indicates, it means that Democrats are reverting to the mean. That tells us that while the Republicans may lose seats as the incumbent party tends to do in a midterm, the blue tsunami is dissipating to the tide that rolls in and out. If the President enjoys continued success like he did with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, that tide may not even make it to shore in 2018.

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