Multiple sources close to former President Donald Trump say that a third presidential campaign is “nearly certain” at this point. Trump, who has strongly hinted at running again in 2024 also intends to make the 2020 election a main focal point throughout his campaign according to sources close to the matter.

Trump has said before that his health will also play a major factor in deciding whether to run but other sources say the biggest factor will be this year’s midterm results.

According to The Daily Caller:

“If the Republicans take the House and the Senate, Donald Trump will run. If we take the House OR the Senate, Donald Trump will strongly consider running. If we take neither of them, he will not run,” a person familiar with Trump’s thinking said.

Sources close to Trump are also watching to see if Joe Biden follows through on his plans to run for a second term.

“If Biden really does run again, [Trump’s] running without question,” a former senior Trump administration official said.

The senior official elaborated that Trump will likely try to “exploit” Biden’s record-setting unpopularity. Both the president and Vice President Kamala Harris have seen their approval ratings plummet since taking office due to their lack of leadership, mishandling of foreign and domestic issues, and economic woes.

However, sources close to Trump say that if he does launch another campaign his platform won’t simply be focused on attacking Biden’s unpopularity. Some Trump associates argue issues such as inflation, the war in Ukraine, and chaos at the border would have been avoided if not for a fraudulent 2020 election. Trump associates have speculated that the former President will often invoke the stolen election, however, some are wondering if the approach will ultimately hurt his chances of winning the White House.

“I think that running on the invalidity of the 2020 election is a mistake, because the American people are looking for solutions to the problems that Joe Biden created,” the person with knowledge of the former president’s thinking added. “Will Donald Trump talk about solutions? Absolutely. But unfortunately, he’s wrapped around the axel of what they did to him in 2020. And he’s right, but the American people aren’t as interested in that.”

Despite these worries, the person familiar with the Trump team’s thinking gave it a “100%” likelihood that Trump leans into election fraud in 2024 – and there are some who believe this strategy could actually help the former president, arguing that more people believe the rigged election story now than when the 2020 election played out.

While some conservatives have wondered if it’s time for the party to move away from Trump there’s no arguing the former President still holds a tight grip over the GOP.