Former President Donald Trump still maintains a strong lead in Iowa ahead of the GOP presidential caucus on Monday with strong enthusiasm from supporters, unlike former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose backers lack the same enthusiasm, according to a new poll released by the Des Moines Register/NBC News/MediaCom.
Out of all voters who expect to caucus for Trump, around 42% said that they were “extremely enthusiastic,” while 39% said that they were “very enthusiastic,” compared to Haley, who came in at 9% and 30% in those same metrics, respectively, according to a poll conducted by Selzer & Co. Overall, those surveyed heavily favored the former president, with 48% of voters saying they would support Trump, followed by Haley at 20% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 16%.
“[Haley’s] enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,” J. Ann Selzer of Slezer & Co. told the Des Moines Register. “That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”
Nearly half of those who said that they would support Haley in the caucus were only “mildly enthusiastic,” according to the poll. DeSantis had a similar lack of enthusiasm, with only 23% of supporters being “extremely enthusiastic.”
Despite the Iowa caucus offering voters the chance to persuade other voters, around 68% of those surveyed said their minds were already made up, while only 25% said that they could still be persuaded, according to the poll. Around 7% of voters were undecided on their first choice.
Expected Trump voters were more likely to already have made up their minds, with 82% saying their support for the former president was locked in, according to the poll. Out of Haley and DeSantis supporters, 63% and 64% said they had made up their minds, respectively.
Of Iowa Republican caucusgoers, Trump is viewed favorably by 69% of them, followed by DeSantis at 58%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 52% and Haley at 48%, according to the poll. Despite expected harsh weather on the day of the event, 62% of DeSantis supporters said that they would “definitely” attend, while 56% and 51% of Trump and Haley supporters said the same, respectively.
Of Haley supporters, 39% identify as independents, while 11% identify as Democrats, meaning half of her measured support is not Republicans since the caucus is open to all Iowans, irrespective of party, according to the poll. Trump still leads overall with independents, with 37% of those surveyed planning to caucus for the former president, followed by Haley at 33% and DeSantis at 14%.
The poll surveyed 705 likely Republican caucusgoers from Jan. 7-12 and had a margin of error of ±3.7.
Will Kessler on January 13, 2024
