President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in four key swing states for a potential 2024 head-to-head rematch, according to a Thursday poll.
Biden would lose to Trump in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona by anywhere from 2 to 8 points among likely voters, and is tied in Wisconsin and narrowly leading in Michigan, according to an Emerson College survey. The poll comes after a series of other surveys suggest similar margins where the former president is beating Biden in crucial battleground states, most of which Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020.
Trump is up by 8 points in Georgia, 4 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Nevada and 2 points in Arizona. The former and current president are tied at 35% in Wisconsin, and Biden is winning 45% to 43% in Michigan.
The former president won five out of the six swing states in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, but lost them to Biden in 2020, while the Democratic nominees in both cycles secured Nevada.
Among registered voters, Trump is beating Biden in all of the swing states but Michigan, where the president still leads by 2 points, according to the poll.
A New York Times/Sienna College survey released Sunday found Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan anywhere from 3 to 10 points. Across the same battleground states plus North Carolina, Trump beat Biden 47% to 43%, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Oct. 19.
More likely Biden voters were motivated by their dislike for “one of the candidates” than that of Trump’s supporters, according to the Emerson College survey. Conversely, more of Trump’s voters turned out because they favored “one of the candidates,” whereas only 18% of Biden supporters did.
The RealClearPolitics average for a 2024 national Republican and Democratic primary, based on the most recent polling, indicates Trump and Biden are leading their fields with 58.5% and 72.3% support, respectively.
The Emerson College survey polled 1,000 registered voters in each battleground state, of which 4,303 are likely voters, between Oct. 30 to Nov. 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.06%.
Neither Trump nor Biden immediately responded to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s requests for comment.
Mary Lou Masters on November 9, 2023
