Pollster Frank Luntz said former President Donald Trump’s Thursday night speech accepting the Republican nomination for president will “absolutely” make Trump supporters “voters.”
Trump gave a 90 minute speech, during which he related his account of the July 13 assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, that left him slightly wounded. Luntz said the acceptance speech, the longest Republican address in history, would not “move the needle,” but that it would increase turnout and motivate his voter base for the November election.
“Trump is leading now, and he’s leading in the swing states, and the last week has been very good for his campaign, even if it’s been bad for his health,” Luntz told CNBC host Aaron Ross Sorkin. “In the last month Trump has found his sea legs and Joe Biden has come apart. So we end up [at] the end of the convention with the Republicans clearly in the lead.”
Sorkin asked if Trump’s speech would gain him additional support among undecided voters.
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“This has not moved the needle. I want to be clear about that. I do not expect Donald Trump to get a bounce from this speech,” Luntz said. “What I do expect is that the intensity of his supporters will absolutely turn them into voters in November, and that’s important. And conversely on the Democratic side, whoever is the nominee, whatever the chaos that comes out over the next month, there is no intensity at all.”
President Joe Biden has faced multiple calls to end his reelection campaign following a June 27 CNN debate with former President Donald Trump, during which he froze at times and made several verbal gaffes, with four additional House Democrats urging Biden to drop his re-election bid in a letter released Friday.
The four Democrats join a growing list of over 25 lawmakers that have called on Biden to step aside.
“So whatever numbers you see, you can expect Trump to do 1 to 2% better because the turnout ratio among Republicans will be that much higher among Democrats,” Luntz told Sorkin. “But Andrew, there is not a single swing voter left. We have all made up our minds. The question is, do we get out and vote?”
Biden trails Trump by 3.0% in a national head-to-head matchup, according to the RealClearPolling average of polls, with Trump’s lead expanding to 3.7% when Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr and Cornel West are included in surveys. Biden led Trump by 8.6% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls on July 19, 2020, while Hillary Clinton led Trump by 2.7% in the RealClearPolitics average on July 19, 2016.
