NBC National Political reporter Steve Kornacki stated Sunday that the Democratic Party’s grip on the Hispanic vote, a once stronghold for the party, has slipped by double digits over the past 12 years.
Polls have shown that Vice President Kamala Harris has not been favorable among Hispanic voters compared to past Democratic candidates. While on “Meet the Press,” Kornacki stated that despite Harris doing “a little better” than President Joe Biden among the key voting bloc, the party has taken a hit in comparison to previous elections.
“Well among Latinos, our poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump, 54 to 40%. Now for some context, this is a little bit better for Democrats than they were doing among Hispanics when Joe Biden was their candidate. But I think the bigger story here is historically, 54 to 40 now is a 14 point advantage for the Democrats,” Kornacki said. “Take a look back at the last three presidential elections, and these were the results in the exit polls among Hispanic voters. That 14 — look at that cut there — almost 20 points less than just four years ago.”
Data from the political reporter shows that while the Democratic Party had a 44-point lead among Hispanic voters in the 2012 general election, support dropped by 6 points in 2016 and another 5 points in 2020, leaving Democrats with only a 14-point advantage for the 2024 race.
Kornacki further broke down the voting bloc, noting that despite Harris’ tie with women, former President Donald Trump is leading among Hispanic men under 50 years old.
“A gender gap — familiar with this one, certainly. Men tied when it comes to this race. Women, a 26 point advantage — again, among Hispanic voters, here, there’s a gender gap as we see with goals of overall voters. Also, age, a big factor here,” Kornacki said. “Voters over fifty, Hispanic voters over fifty, almost a 60 point advantage for Harris and she’s barely leading with Hispanic voters under 50. In fact, among men under 50 Donald Trump, actually leads in our poll by nine points.
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“We also see an education divide. Again, we talk about this a lot when we’re talking about the overall pool of voters too. Men without four year degrees, that’s now a double digit Trump constituency in our poll. Men with degrees are siding with Harris here, bigger margins among women, but we are seeing a bit of that education gap,” Kornacki continued.
The political reporter noted that Catholic Hispanics tend to support Harris over Trump by 20 points, while Trump leads Harris among Protestant Hispanics by 26 points. Kornacki noted that while Harris leads Trump on abortion and effectiveness, Trump holds a 13-point lead on immigration and tops the key voter concerns of economy and inflation.
“Hispanic voters are saying it’s Donald Trump, and that is part of a broader shift here about basic attitudes among Hispanic voters toward immigration. Look, when Donald Trump first ran in 2016, 69% of Hispanics said immigration helps the country more than it hurts. That’s come down to 62, and the number who say it hurts more than helps all the way up to 35% percent,” Kornacki said.
With 37% of Hispanic voters now identifying with the Republican Party and 49% with the Democratic Party, Kornacki stated that the percentage of this key voting bloc identifying with the left has dropped nearly 29 points since 2012.
Featured Image Credit: Benjamin Chelnitsky
