Former President Barack Obama’s chief campaign strategist David Axelrod on Thursday said Democrats are justifiably worried about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances against former President Donald Trump in November.
The presidential race is tight, with neither Trump nor Harris leading by more than 1% in any of the top seven battleground states, and Trump currently ahead in five, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Axelrod, on “The Bulwark Podcast with Tim Miller,” said the neck and neck race should trouble Democrats, but noted that he believes pollsters are capturing Trump’s support more accurately than in past elections.
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“I think the vibe right now isn’t great; there’s concern. But partly, we have this plethora of polls, and they all say something slightly different. So, you know, if she’s two points up in one poll in a state and another poll comes out and says she’s a point down, that is a round of bed-wetting and so on,” Axelrod said. “I’m not minimizing the fact that I do think she stalled out about ten days after the debate.”
Axelrod also credited the Trump campaign with being “very disciplined in their media,” which he said is intended to portray Harris as “a continuation of Biden’s economics” and “an exotic, left-wing radical.”
“So, they have been burning that message in, and I think that’s had some impact as well. So, is it right to be concerned? It’s right to be concerned. This is a very, very close race, though. I mean, the reality of the race is you’re talking about virtual ties in almost all the battleground states,” the strategist said. “Now, the question that plays in people’s minds is, does Trump produce what he has in the past, which is hidden vote that comes out at the end? So is a tie actually a win for him? That’s, I think, what a lot of Republicans assume. I think a lot of Democrats fear it.”
“I don’t know. I mean, polling has been refined; his number generally is around where his number has been in the final analysis, so it makes me think that polling has refined itself,” he added. “I don’t think there are shy Trump voters out there anymore. Trump voters are anything but shy.”
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten noted Tuesday that if Trump outperforms his 2024 polling by the identical margin he did against President Joe Biden in 2020, he will win sufficient swing states to beat Harris “in a blowout.” CNN panelists on Wednesday asserted Democrats are increasingly experiencing “anxiety” regarding Harris’ prospects against Trump amid their tight race.
Moreover, journalist Mark Halperin asserted on Tuesday that Harris is on a weakened trajectory to secure the battleground states based on the latest private polling he has observed. He also said that both Democrats and Trump affiliates he’s talked to are in agreement that Trump is gaining traction in these important states.
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