CNN’s Jake Tapper admitted Monday that former President Donald Trump could potentially win the 2024 presidential race if it were held tomorrow, based on data from prominent pollster Nate Silver.
Democrats are growing increasingly concerned as November approaches, with polls and pundits warning that Vice President Kamala Harris is falling behind with key voting blocs, such as black men and Hispanics. On “The Lead With Jake Tapper,” the CNN host shared statistics from Silver’s most recent election prediction, highlighting Trump’s lead in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
“Let’s also take a look at where the state of the race is right now and I could do this with the real clear politics average or CNN‘s average or whatever. But just looking today, I went to Nate Silver‘s ‘Silver Bullet Substack’ and he has Trump slightly up in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Harris likely up in Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and they‘re tied in Pennsylvania,”
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“If that were to be the result tomorrow that‘s basically a Trump win, I mean, ultimately,” Tapper continued. “Because she needs the three blue wall states plus Nevada and she doesn‘t have them right now. Are you worried about where the state of the race is, right this second? Just be honest.”
Former Biden presidential campaign aide Ashley Allison went on to state how worried she is about the outcome of the race, with America First Policy Institute chief communications officer stating he was “more confident” in Trump winning.
In a Substack piece on Sunday, Silver stated that the latest data on Harris is “pretty negative,” noting that three national polls now show Trump in the lead.
“The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris,” Silver wrote. “There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage— and her edge in our national polling average is down to 1.7 points. National polls don’t influence the model that much, and the race remains basically a toss-up, but it’s not hard to think of reasons that Trump could win.”
Silver’s current Electoral College prediction gives Trump a 53% chance of winning, while Harris holds a slight lead in the popular vote by 1.6%. Additionally, polling averages from RealClearPolitics recently showed the former president leading by 0.8 points, with 48.3% support across seven key battleground states compared to Harris’s 47.5%.
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