All of these models depend on the economy staying strong into the election cycle. That is one of the main variables for Trump in 2020.
Moody’s Analytics uses three different economic models to predict the outcome of political races: “how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment,” CNBC reports. “The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.”
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a vote of 304-227 in the electoral college. The three models project that Trump would get at least 289 electoral votes if turnout is average.
Under the model on how people feel about their own financial situations, Trump wins 351 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 187, based on average turnout.
Under the stock market model, Trump would win with a 289-249 vote. The unemployment model gives Trump a 332-206 win. Using all three models combined, Trump wins 324-214.