Polling firms across the United States are clamoring to accurately predict who will win November. Every firm is constantly researching and interviewing potential voters in hopes of gaining some insight into what the American public truly thinks about the presidential candidates. One polling firm in particular has stood out against the crowd because of their skillful predictions in the past.
The Trafalgar Group gained national attention in 2016 after they accurately predicted Trump’s victory in Michigan and Pennsylvania, the group was the only research firm to correctly predict the wins. The group recently released it’s most recent Pennsylvania poll (10/10-12; 1,034 PA likely voters) which revealed Democrat nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump 47.4-45.1%, with just over a two-point spread. It’s worth noting 12 other polling firms have reported a much larger spread with Biden leading by 7 points in some reports.
During the 2016 presidential election against Hillary Clinton, nearly all pollsters predicted that Clinton would handily beat Trump. Obviously, that was not the case. However, most of the polling community’s projections in the Great Lakes region were particularly off.
In the 2016 presidential election Trafalgar, along with only two other polling groups found Trump leading in Pennsylvania. Only 5% of the 62 surveys conducted in the state accurately predicted the outcome. In Michigan, only two of 45 pollsters showed Trump in the lead, one of which was Trafalgar. Then in Wisconsin of the 33 polls taken, nobody accurately predicted Trump’s victory.
Pollsters miscalculated Republican votes in more than just the Great Lakes region. In North Carolina, going into the election pollsters predicted an even margin average with Trump ultimately winning with a 3.6% spread. Trafalgar predicted a five-point win for Trump. Farther south in Florida, cumulative polling missed by 1.2% and in Arizona, polling missed by two points. Trafalgar accurately predicted Trump’s Florida victory, however, they had predicted a four-point lead.
Unlike other pollsters, the Trafalgar Group attempts to take into account “the silent majority,” the name given to Republicans planning to vote for Trump but won’t make their voting plans known. In most cases, Trafalgar has been able to approximately predict these numbers.
The Trafalgar Group has also accurately predicted a handful of other elections across the nation when other pollsters indicate a win for the opposing candidate. In Florida’s 2018 Senate race between then-governor, Rick Scott defeated Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson by a slim margin of 50.1- 49.9% while the polling community predicted a lead of nearly 2.3% for then-Senator Nelson. Trafalgar was one of only two pollsters to accurately predict Scott’s victory.
In 2017 during the GA-6 special election between Democrat Senate candidate Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel pollsters predicted a win for Ossoff. Going into election day, pollsters consistently predicted the Democrat to hold a one-point lead. However, Karen Handel won the race with a 3.8% victory, again, Trafalgar was one of the only polling groups to accurately predict the winner.
While most pollsters are predicting a Joe Biden victory in November it’s important to bright to light the fact that President Trump is performing ahead of his pace in 2016 in a number of states. While Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by narrow margins four years ago he is already outperforming those numbers. As the election gets closer and closer pollsters will attempt to predict who will win the Presidency and clearly, The Trafalgar Group will be one to pay close attention to.