Florida
Florida voters are navigating through a very busy ballot that the Governor’s race headlines. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appears likely to earn a comfortable, low double-digit victory over former Governor and resigned Congressman Charlie Crist (D). The late-cycle polling, early voting matrix, and turnout model looks to favor Republicans, which will allow Sen. Marco Rubio (R) to turn back a strong challenge from US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando).
The Florida congressional redistricting map looks to be the Republicans’ strongest in the country, and they expect to see a net gain of four seats coming from this delegation.
In order to achieve that number, Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) must first defeat fellow Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee). The two were paired under the redistricting map that eliminated a majority minority north Florida district that the Supreme Court decision in the Alabama case will likely affect. The new 2nd District is decidedly Republican, which makes Rep. Dunn the favorite to prevail on Tuesday night.
Republican businessman and Iraq/Afghanistan War veteran Cory Mills looks like a lock to secure the open 7th District from which three-term Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) is retiring. The new open 15th District is the state’s new seat that was earned in national reapportionment. Former Secretary of State Laurel Lee convincingly won a competitive Republican primary and is favored on Tuesday. Her opponent is former television news anchorman Alan Cohn (D).
The other potential open seat conversion is the state’s 13th District between 2020 GOP nominee Anna Paulina Luna and Democratic former Defense Department official Eric Lynn. This is the seat from which Charlie Crist resigned to concentrate on his statewide campaign. The race appears close, but the new draw gives the Republican nominee a strong advantage.
South Florida Republican freshman incumbents Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) and Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) both face significant Democratic competition. Rep. Salazar has the tougher battle of the two, but both are looked upon as favorites to win again. All other incumbents in both parties seeking re-election are positioned for strong victories.
