An interesting polling result for a few reasons, not the least of which is the fact that Q-polls have been pretty terrible for Republicans in the Trump era. First off, the trajectory here is good for Trump. Early on in 2017, Obama was winning the strong majority of credit for an improving US economy. By the fall of last year, a double-digit majority (50/37) of Americans credited Obama over Trump for the improving US economy. Toward the end of January, Gallup showed Trump getting close to pulling even with his predecessor. And now that spring has sprung? Trump has shot out into the lead, and it’s not close. Look at the evolution in public sentiment over the last year:
Who is more responsible for the state of the economy? (via new Quinnipiac poll)
One year ago:
Obama 66%, Trump 18%Six months ago:
Obama 50%, Trump 37%Now:
Trump 54%, Obama 34%— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 11, 2018
And some of the internals that add up to produce that top line numbers are…borderline incredible:
A plurality of Democrats (!) in new Quinnipiac poll say Trump is more responsible for the current economy (46%) than Obama (43%).
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 11, 2018
Beyond that, women split (55/32) on the same question, with independents at (49/35). The overall majority is correct, in my view; Obama inherited an economic meltdown (caused in significant measure by foolish big government experiments), and his inefficient or damaging major domestic policies inhibited what could have been a much more robust and speedy recovery. Trump’s program of deregulation and tax reform have unquestionably improved the economic climate in America, both for consumers and businesses (last month’s fairly tepid jobs report notwithstanding). So the great news for the White House is that Americans are attributing the economic situation to the president. And they view the current economic situation positively, for both themselves and the country writ large: Sixty percent say the nation’s economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape. Asked about their personal lives, 78 percent respond with “excellent” or “good.” Those are really, really strong numbers. The less great news for the White House is that in spite of these positive marks, a majority (41/52) still disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Interestingly, that isn’t translating into a major deficit for the GOP on the generic ballot. In fact, speaking of trajectories, here’s another one:
Q-poll generic Congressional ballot over the last month:
Early March Dems +10
Mid March Dems +6
Now Dems +3https://t.co/XiKOS55xmb— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 11, 2018
It’s Democrats 46, Republicans 43 in the latest iteration, with both parties deep underwater on favorability (Dems -20, GOP -26). If the generic ballot is a dogfight, why are Republicans dropping like flies — perhaps with more to come? Probably because polling has bounced around, where as electoral results have virtually all trended in one direction. But since we’re already in the process of examining this survey, let’s review a few more of its findings…
[REALTED: The Great American Tax Scam]
