Has the Trump Boom Already Begun?

The election of Donald Trump, and the expectation that his administration may pursue vigorous pro-growth policies may already be ushering in a small business boom in America. As Bloomberg reports:

Optimism among America’s small businesses soared in December by the most since 1980 as expectations about the economy’s prospects improved dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential election.

The National Federation of Independent Business’s index jumped 7.4 points last month to 105.8, the highest since the end of 2004, from 98.4. While seven of the 10 components increased in December, 73 percent of the monthly advance was due to more upbeat views about the outlook for sales and the economy, the Washington-based group said.

The share of business owners who say now is a good time to expand is three times the average of the current expansion, according to the NFIB’s data. More companies also said they plan to increase investment and keep hiring, which reflects optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s plans of spurring the economy through deregulation, tax reform and infrastructure spending.

“Rising confidence adds to the economy’s upward momentum,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said in a note. At the same time, the “NFIB membership appears to be disproportionately Republican, so it is possible that the data will start overstating strength, opposite the pattern during the Obama administration.”

This isn’t rocket science. Liberals, even in some context recognize this. Andrew Cuomo’s failed “Start Up New York” program was built on the notion that low taxes or no taxes are necessary for growth. But merely getting out of the way, and allowing businesses to prosper in such an environment just won’t fly with them. They need to be the gatekeeper, they need to pick the winners and losers, and they need to take credit, so they craft byzantine economic policies that weigh down businesses with millions of dollars in compliance and legal fees. 

In Donald Trump, a successful business owner who’s tussled with regulators his entire adult life, American small businesses may have finally found an ally. Let’s hope the growth continues. 



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