According to a YouGov/Economist poll, former President Donald Trump remains the top choice in the Republican primary, with a substantial lead over nearest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump secures 48% of the prospective GOP votes, a 26-point advantage over DeSantis. A hypothetical general election faceoff with current President Joe Biden shows a tight race.
Other potential Republican candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Senators Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, former Governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, only garnered single-digit support. DeSantis emerged as the most preferred second-choice candidate among Republicans.
Trump held an advantage among independent voters, leading Biden 33 percent to 27 percent. Biden, on the other hand, enjoyed a 20-point lead among the 18-29 age group, a narrow 3-point advantage among the 30-44 demographic, while Trump held a nine-point edge among the 45-64 population and an 11-point margin among older age groups. Despite the tight race, a plurality of both adults and registered voters anticipate Trump’s re-election. Among adults, 40 percent believe Trump will emerge victorious, compared to 38 percent who hold that view for Biden.
Among registered voters, 41 percent predict a Trump victory, while 40 percent favor Biden. Regarding leadership abilities, the survey revealed that a majority of registered voters perceive Trump as a stronger leader. Fifty-four percent consider him a “strong” leader to varying degrees, with 33 percent characterizing him as “very strong.” In contrast, 37 percent view Biden as a “strong” leader, with only 14 percent categorizing him as “very strong.” Sixty-five percent of voters perceive Biden as “weak,” with 44 percent describing him as “very weak” and 19 percent as “somewhat weak.”
The poll was conducted between July 8-11 and involved a sample of 1,500 U.S. adults, with a margin of error (MOE) of plus or minus 2.9 percent after adjusting for weighting. Among registered voters, the MOE stands at plus or minus 2.8 percent.
