During a recent conversation with the New York Times, Fetterman delved into the enduring political impact of former President Donald Trump in his state, even after his indictment. He noted that Trump’s presence remains strong, evident from the numerous “Trump signs everywhere” in Pennsylvania.
As a senator, Fetterman expressed his uncertainty about the number of indictments and impeachments Trump has faced, but he acknowledged that these legal challenges have not diminished Trump’s influence. Despite the potential for Trump to be a formidable force in Pennsylvania’s political landscape, Fetterman also highlighted a significant obstacle: Trump would need to surpass a hard ceiling of support in the state to be truly competitive, saying:
“It doesn’t matter. I’m a senator, and I’m not sure how many times he’s been indicted. He’s been impeached twice. Has that changed anything? You’re still seeing Trump signs everywhere in Pennsylvania. You have to respect his strength in all of that.” Adding, “Trump would be very competitive in Pennsylvania. But Trump has to perform above his ceiling. I think there’s a hard ceiling in Pennsylvania he can’t get past.”
In 2024, there is a strong possibility that Donald Trump could secure a victory in Pennsylvania, despite losing the state to Joe Biden in 2020. During the previous election, Trump narrowly lost Pennsylvania by about 81,000 votes, with a slim margin of 0.2%. In contrast, Trump had won the state in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by a 0.7% margin.
The potential for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2024 can be attributed to several factors. One key factor is the presence of Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, who garnered 79,397 votes, amounting to 1.1% of the total votes. Given that Libertarians typically lean right-wing and prioritize small government issues, it is reasonable to assume that a significant portion of Jorgensen’s votes might have gone to Trump, potentially narrowing the gap between him and Biden to less than 2,000 votes. The divergence of the Libertarian vote from the Democratic party and the Biden administration further reinforces Trump’s prospects.
Another aspect to consider is the unprecedentedly high voter turnout in 2020, which is unlikely to be replicated in 2024. Lower turnout in the upcoming election could have an impact on the overall results.
Moreover, President Biden’s favorability ratings have declined since taking office, which might influence voters’ choices in the next election.
Taking all these factors into account, without a strong Libertarian candidate drawing votes away from Trump, it is plausible that Trump could carry Pennsylvania, and potentially even secure victories in other critical states like Arizona and Georgia in the upcoming election.
