In The 2024 Election Cycle, A NEW Frontrunner Has Emerged.
Trump vs. Biden: Polling Overview
- Donald Trump currently leads with 44.8% support over Joe Biden’s 44.4% in the averaged RealClearPolitics national poll.
- In the 2020 election cycle, Trump never surpassed Biden nationally. However, in the 2024 cycle, he’s been either leading or tailing closely behind Biden since early April.
- Within this year, Biden’s peak lead over Trump in the average poll was two percentage points, whereas Trump’s largest advantage was by 2.5 points.
Detailed Recent Poll Results
- RCP Average (8/23 – 9/12): Trump 45.1% | Biden 44.6% | Trump +0.5%
- FOX News (9/9 – 9/12): Trump 48% | Biden 46% | Trump +2%
- Quinnipiac (9/7 – 9/11): Trump 46% | Biden 47% | Biden +1%
- The Messenger/HarrisX (9/6 – 9/11): Trump 44% | Biden 43% | Trump +1%
- Economist/YouGov (9/10 – 9/12): Trump 43% | Biden 44% | Biden +1%
- Morning Consult (9/8 – 9/10): Trump 42% | Biden 44% | Biden +2%
- CNN (8/25 – 8/31): Trump 47% | Biden 46% | Trump +1%
- Wall Street Journal (8/24 – 8/30): Trump 46% | Biden 46% | Tie
- Emerson (8/25 – 8/26): Trump 46% | Biden 44% | Trump +2%
- New York Post (8/23 – 8/24): Trump 44% | Biden 41% | Trump +3%
Historical Polling Data
- In 2020, Biden maintained at least a four-point lead over Trump, even leading by double digits at times. On the 2020 Election Day, Biden was ahead by an average of 7.2 points.
- Of all the national polls conducted between February and the 2020 Election Day, Trump led Biden just once and only by one point. In contrast, in the 2024 cycle, Trump has been ahead in five out of the last 12 national polls.
Comparison with Other GOP Candidates
- Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, another GOP favorite, trails Biden by an average of 3.8 points. In the latest 12 national polls, DeSantis has yet to ever beat Biden.
- Trump’s current polling position suggests he’s more likely than DeSantis to defeat Biden. Furthermore, Trump’s position now is stronger compared to where he stood in 2020 against Biden.
