Democrats Brace For Incoming Red Wave

Carl Mikoy from New York, USA, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Republicans are taking the 2022 Midterm elections by storm, with many wondering how they are doing it. In many traditional Democratic states, Republicans are gearing up to take seats that have traditionally not belonged to them. This comes at a time when Republicans only need to win a handful of seats to take control of the House of Representatives, which is currently in Democratic control narrowly by 220-212. With less than two weeks left before election day Republicans are in contention for three of six seats in Oregon, five seats in California, and five seats in New York. This leaves Democrats with one big question – How will they stop the red wave?

FiveThirtyEight released poll data Monday that put Republicans in the lead for the elections. While the margin is 0.5% over Democrats, this is a stark difference from the 1.1% lead Democrats held over Republicans only two weeks earlier on October 13th. This data suggests that Republicans could pull off the flip they are hoping to in less than two weeks.

In many polls released this month, the change from September to now shows a considerable multi-point advance for Republicans. And for the past several months, Republicans have remained in the top percentage to take the majority in the house, with the most recent numbers giving Republicans an 80 in 100 chance of the majority.

While many Democrats feel that the polling data won’t matter come election day, the numbers paint a drastically different picture. For starters, in 2020, Democrats didn’t win a single district Trump won by 10 points or more though now seats Biden has carried by 10 points or more are swaying to the right. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s disapproval ratings are down in all the polls released on their site Wednesday. Along with the idea that the country is overall going in the wrong direction and the recent polls that suggested voters have more faith in the Republican party to handle pertinent issues, there is a high potential that Republicans could become the favored party among voters this cycle.

  1. Polls are notoriously inaccurate. If you think otherwise just look at the spread of the spreads in Lyin’ Biden’s job approval – it is far greater than the poll’s stated accuracy, so half of them have to be wrong (that is, outside of their accuracy). That said, there is NO DOUBT of a historic Red Wave come Nov.8.

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