On Sunday, President Trump predicted he will win the November election “big” due in part to his support from the “vast silent majority”.
Here’s the tweet:
THE VAST SILENT MAJORITY IS ALIVE AND WELL!!! We will win this Election big. Nobody wants a Low IQ person in charge of our Country, and Sleepy Joe is definitely a Low IQ person!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 28, 2020
The current Real Clear Politics National Average shows President Trump trailing Biden by 9.2 percentage points during the period of June 17 – June 24.
Real Clear Politics also has Trump trailing Biden in the battleground states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona.
However, there may be some good news for Trump who trailed in the 2016 polls and shocked the world by upsetting Hillary Clinton.
The only pollster who called Donald Trump beating Clinton in Michigan – and showed Trump winning Pennsylvania in ’16– is showing a much closer race:
Cahaly’s polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania – again, he was nearly alone in projecting Trump’s narrow victory there – and thus taking the White House. Cahaly’s success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America.
So it’s notable that Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%.
Robert Cahaly told Real Clear Politics that he sees signs of “reluctant” and “shy” Trump voters in his polling which may explain some polling discrepancies. Poll respondents may not tell pollsters the truth because their support for a particular candidate may be “viewed as unfavorable”. Cahaly said this “social desirability status” is worse than it was in ’16.
Cahaly’s polling also shows gains for Trump amongst African-American voters. He’s showing 11% support whereas it was just 6% in 2016, according to exit polls.